• 🛑Hello, this board in now turned off and no new posting.
    Please REGISTER at Anabolic Steroid Forums, and become a member of our NEW community! 💪
  • 💪Muscle Gelz® 30% Off Easter Sale👉www.musclegelz.com Coupon code: EASTER30🐰

Growing number of economists see recovery on horizon

Arnold

Numero Uno
Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Nov 29, 2000
Messages
82,092
Reaction score
3,072
Points
113
Location
Las Vegas
IML Gear Cream!
Growing number of economists see recovery on horizon
Monday April 6, 3:21 pm ET
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

Unemployment at a 25-year high. Housing prices continuing to fall. Corporate titans such as General Motors on the brink of bankruptcy. There's no lack of bad economic news.

And yet, amid the gloom, there are a growing number of economists that see a recovery on the horizon -- perhaps even a strong rebound.

They say that a number of indicators appear to have bottomed out in recent months. Job losses may have peaked in January. Home sales are starting to pick up. Stocks are enjoying a strong rally.

And because the economy has experienced such a steep decline in the current downturn, some economists are hopeful the recovery ahead will be much stronger than the anemic gains that came about after the end of the previous two recessions.

Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute, said the economy could be as close to four months away from a recovery.

He says his firms' readings on long-term and short-term economic indicators give him significantly more hope that the economy is closer to a turnaround than he had thought even a month ago. Among the more than dozen different things his firm looks at are home prices, the jobs picture and stock prices.

"These readings don't really turn unless something is happening," he said.

To be sure, many economists still think that the recession won't end until much later this year, if not 2010. But Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, also believes that a recovery could be closer than most people think. However, he said an end to the recession will largely depend on improvement in the labor markets.

"We're starting to see some pent up demand for goods. But first things first, we need to see job losses moderate," he said.

Zandi said just a slowing rate of job losses should help make people more confident about their own job outlook, as will a continuation of the recent gains for stocks.

Those two factors, plus a sign that home price declines have ended will help to turn around consumer confidence, Zandi said. That should help spur more spending.

Zandi said the problem with confidence today is that when things aren't going well, many people can't picture things getting better, just as they have trouble imagining declining prices of homes and stocks during a boom period.

"Confidence is a very fickle thing. It can go from abject pessimism that pervades now to a more balanced view of the world rather quickly," he said.

Robert Brusca of FAO Economics, also believes there will be a fairly sharp recovery, mainly because this recession was so much worse than the ones in 1991 and 2001.

A slow, jobless recovery took place after those recessions, which were both fairly mild by historical standards. But the economy has often bounced back sharply following more severe recessions.

Brusca points out that, prior to the 1991 and 2001 downturns, the nation's gross domestic product has gained about 7%, on average, during the first year of a recovery.

For this reason, he is predicting strong growth in at least one of the year's final two quarters as well as a quicker return to health for the labor market.

"You've lost 5 million jobs. It shouldn't be hard to put 2.5 million jobs back on rather quickly after you hit bottom," he said.

Joseph Carson, chief economist at AllianceBernstein, said the economy is already showing early indications of turning around. In addition to improving home sales and positive signs from the stock and bond markets, retail sales in February and March were stronger than expected.

And all of this has happened before the nearly $800 billion stimulus package that was enacted earlier this has had much of an effect. Because of this, Carson said the stimulus plan could create stronger than expected growth -- and much sooner than consensus forecasts.

"Stimulus has a much better chance of working if trends are already turning up than if it needs to halt a decline," he said.

Yahoo! Personal Finance
 
Anyone?
I guess if it's good Obama news it will get ignored.
 
I know I have my fingers crossed!
 
Job losses did not peak in Jan. they were revised lower in Jan and Feb and March is even worse. Wishful thinking at best. They want you to believe that.
 
This has been a bear market rally, but yes there are some indicators showing things may be turning around.

I am still 40% cash until I am convinced to buy...
 
Many economists disagree with the article above in the OP.

I do not think a recovery is on the "horizon." The term "horizon" means the recovery is soon.

The statistics are not getting better they are getting worse in regards to unemployment and housing. Housing has not seen the bottom.

The stock market did not "rally" during the last weeks. On Tuesday it was down over 2%.

State budget deficits will mean police officers getting laid and high education tuition hikes, which are happening, now.
 
Last I saw, late mortgages for both regular loans and sub primes were up substantially, combine that with job losses...

sounds like wishful thinking at best
 
Last I saw, late mortgages for both regular loans and sub primes were up substantially, combine that with job losses...

sounds like wishful thinking at best

Seems more like an outright lie to me
 
IML Gear Cream!
More PR...this time from CNNmoney. They don't want their viewers to leave after too much doom and gloom.
 
Things have really picked up for alt. energy in my area, I just had a RFQ for 39 two kilowatt systems w/ solar water heating(at least $750,000 in equipment cost), and another call for 8 seven thousand watt inverters plus an inquiry if we had enough PV modules to max those out (380+ @ $800=$300,000)... Both jobs claim they have more than enough money for the projects and they have to spend it all or lose it........I don't know if thats stimulus money or what but that will create a few jobs and keep several others secure......
 
Back
Top