# US Economy: next 5 years - You Tell Us



## Big Smoothy (May 30, 2011)

A guideline.

You don't have to follow it. You can, disagree, just say why:
--
Mobius Says Financial Crisis ‘Around The Corner’
By Kana Nishizawa - May 30, 2011 6:10 PM GMT+0700

*
Templeton's Emerging Markets Group Chairman Mark Mobius
*
Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management's emerging markets group, speaks at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan (FCCJ) in Tokyo. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets group, *said another financial crisis is inevitable* because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved.
*
“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,”* Mobius said at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo today in response to a question about price swings. “Are the derivatives regulated? No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes.”
*
The total value of derivatives in the world exceeds total global gross domestic product by a factor of 10, said Mobius,* who oversees more than $50 billion. With that volume of bets in different directions, volatility and equity market crises will occur, he said.
*
The global financial crisis three years ago was caused in part by the proliferation of derivative products tied to U.S. home loans that ceased performing, triggering hundreds of billions of dollars in writedowns and leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.* in September 2008. The MSCI AC World Index of developed and emerging market stocks tumbled 46 percent between Lehman’s downfall and the market bottom on March 9, 2009.

“With every crisis comes great opportunity,” said Mobius. When markets are crashing, “that’s when we’re going to be able to invest and do a good job,” he said.

The freezing of global credit markets caused governments from Washington to Beijing to London to pump more than $3 trillion into the financial system to shore up the global economy. The MSCI AC World gauge surged 99 percent from its March 2009 low through May 27.
‘Too Big to Fail’
*
The largest U.S. banks have grown larger since the financial crisis*, and the number of “too-big-to-fail” banks will increase by 40 percent over the next 15 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Entire: Mobius Says Financial Crisis


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## LAM (May 30, 2011)

as David Harvey reminds us time and time again that capitalism never solves it's problems, it only moves them around.  unfortunately for the middle class and people at the lower levels of income there are only so many hits to their wealth that can be taken before they are flat broke or in the case of many american's severely upside down in their mortgages, so negative equity.  and with home prices in many area's continuing to decrease things simply don't look good for the future of the "middle class" in the US or UK.

* If you go to line #34 you can see how the increase in personal savings the past couple of years is causing GDP growth to slow and this will continue as more americans reduce spending to save and/or pay down revolving debt.  typically you would also see an increase in the personal savings rate as there is less wealth "created" from home ownership, more monies need to be saved.


http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb...ar=2011&3Place=N&Update=Update&JavaBox=no#Mid

if the FRB would ever increase interest rates we would also see an increase in government savings but it doesn't look like that's is going to happen anytime soon.


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## LAM (May 30, 2011)

another thing is that people don't realize is that with globalization and the inter-mingling of the various nations economies, etc. what happens on the other side of the world effects everyone now.


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## myCATpowerlifts (May 30, 2011)

we'll just put another band-aid on it in a few years.

It's all just a game anyway.

Resources available are resources available.

All the pretend value (money/economy) surrounding it may collapse, but it won't be the end of the world....or will it?


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## Chubby (May 30, 2011)

Perfect combination of Socialism and Capitalism or middle ground?  Because I beleive both are two extreme opposite.


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## GearsMcGilf (May 30, 2011)

Increased personal savings will slow GDP growth in the short run.   But, in the long run, more savings will be good for the economy.  The fact that so many were trying to live beyond their means, for such a long time, was a great contributing factor to the financial meltdown.  The fact that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates artificially low for many years helped to facilitate the massive borrowing orgy that ultimately led to it.  This correction/prolonged recession will take many more years to work itself out.  I'm not too optimistic about the coming years.


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## LAM (May 30, 2011)

still the massive problem with wages.  many new jobs are paying poverty wages and many jobs have not kept up with cost of living increases or reduced pay so wages in those jobs have fallen into poverty levels.  service sector jobs only pay on average from $8-$14/hour and avg rent in the US is $700/month.

ever increasing military complex budget still has to be addressed.  it's 1B a year just to maintain each carrier, etc.

BEA - National Income and Product Accounts Table
U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis

2010 GDP was 14.6T out of that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was 10.3T which comes out to 70% of GDP from consumption.  which wouldn't be a problem if we were exporting far more than we are importing but the exact opposite is true.  the US doesn't trade evenly with anyone, not even with our closest OECD partners Mexico and Canada.  and that's a whole separate issue and it's effects on the US economy.

Top Ten Countries with which the U.S. Trades
Foreign Trade: Data

U.S. Trade in Goods and Services - Balance of Payments (BOP) Basis
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/gands.pdf


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## GearsMcGilf (May 30, 2011)

If you look down the road, say 20-30 years, the picture might not look so bleak.  China recently passed Japan as the world's 2nd largest economy.  The middle class in the US & UK obviously have a much greater buying power than the average middle class person in China.  But, because of the economic growth in China, as well as the outsourcing of jobs, the supply and demand curve for labor in China is changing.  This is why a lot of unskilled labour jobs that would have been allocated to China are now going to countries like Vietnam and Laos.  IOW, wages in China are increasing and so is the buying power of the average middle class person.  It may take a while, but the fact that wages are increasing for the middle class in China may help to reduce the trade deficit b/w the two countries over time.  And, with 1.3 billion consumers, that could be great news for us.  They certainly love US made products over there.


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## LAM (May 30, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> This is why a lot of unskilled labour jobs that would have been allocated to China are now going to countries like Vietnam and Laos.  IOW, wages in China are increasing and so is the buying power of the average middle class person.  It may take a while, but the fact that wages are increasing for the middle class in China may help to reduce the trade deficit b/w the two countries over time.  And, with 1.3 billion consumers, that could be great news for us.  They certainly love US made products over there.



yep...that's the "game" that manufactures of consumable products play, they constantly have to find the cheapest labor to maximize profits.  I know wallmart force's it's buyers to come in at 5% less every year so many of them will definitely be moving operations to Vietnam and Laos.

from a pure geographic standpoint there can be only so many of these shifts in manufacturing before this problem catches up to itself.

it would be nice of the US could increase the national savings rate while simultaneously increasing exports and reducing imports.


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## GearsMcGilf (May 30, 2011)

Well, having been in China in 2000 and several times again over just 10 years, it's amazing what a transformation the country has made.  American products are like crack to many of those consumers.  Sure, you can get the same exact thing, faked for much less, but no one wants that if they can afford the real deal.  I'm not optimistic about the economy over the next 5 years.  It's kind of funny when you think about it.  Being a yankee, I was all over the fake products because they were exactly the same, but a fraction of the price.  But, the Chinese were all about labels.

China's leaders are much smarter than ours.  That much is obvious to anyone who has been observing changes in China vis-a-vis the USA over just the last few years.  When China surpasses the US as the world's largest economy, and I believe it will happen in the next 20 years, there will be a lot of Chinese consumers with deeper pockets and wages will be more on par with western wages.  Once this occurs, they will be buying up US made products and we may see a revival of manufacturing in the US.

Here in AL, we've had many new foreign auto manufacturing plants set up shop over the last 7-8 years - Hundai, Mercedes, and Honda, to name a few.  They are all non-union, yet faring much better than their non union counterparts.  They seem to pay competitive wages and benefits in order to avoid the problems we've seen in Detroit.

http://www.al.com/opinion/birminghamnews/editorials.ssf?/base/opinion/1223108145288410.xml&coll=2


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## Big Smoothy (May 30, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Increased personal savings will slow GDP growth in the short run.   But, in the long run, more savings will be good for the economy.



And savers are being punished.  Interest rates are so slow, it's a form of punishment.  

Although many are cashing up at the moment, saving what _little_ they can.


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## GearsMcGilf (May 30, 2011)

It's hard to save much with gas prices at $4.00/gal.  Your not getting much of a return on your savings.  But, at least you're not paying 16% on your mortgage.  It cuts both ways.


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## LAM (May 30, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> It's hard to save much with gas prices at $4.00/gal.  Your not getting much of a return on your savings.  But, at least you're not paying 16% on your mortgage.  It cuts both ways.



that's why I say hedging by those not able to actually take possession of the items or even those not directly associated with that industry should not be able to participate in that specific type of trading.

for example - jet fuel purchases:

Airline Industry - Hedging allowed
Wallstreet Banks - Hedging not allowed


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 1, 2011)

I'm still looking for the green shoots. "Horror" is over-the-top, and yes it's from London. But still...it ain't good.
*---






Horror for US Economy as Data Falls off Cliff

Click to expand...

*


> Wednesday, 1 Jun 2011
> 
> Patrick Allen
> CNBC EMEA Head of News
> ...



Entire: News Headlines

And this:


> "Interest rates are amazingly low and that, thanks to Ben Bernanke, is driving everything," Yastrow said.* "We’re on the verge of a great, great depression. The [Federal Reserve] knows it*.



Entire: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43236764


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> I'm still looking for the green shoots. "Horror" is over-the-top, and yes it's from London. But still...it ain't good.
> *---
> 
> Entire: News Headlines
> ...


*

in order to get accurate information on US economics you have to go outside of the country, most US economists sugar coat everything, after-all they have bosses to.*


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 2, 2011)

LAM said:


> that's why I say hedging by those not able to actually take possession of the items or even those not directly associated with that industry should not be able to participate in that specific type of trading.
> 
> for example - jet fuel purchases:
> 
> ...



Fuck!  I never thought I'd agree with our resident communist.  But, I have to agree that if you have no skin in the game, you shouldn't be able to bid up the price for the rest of us.  If Exxon wants to hedge their cost of oil, they should be allowed to buy a contract to purchase 1000 barrels of oil for $120/barrel if they believe the price is going ^.  But, if Chase Bank wants to do the same (having no intention of closing regardless of where the price goes), they should be required to put down 50% so that there is some skin in the game.  Otherwise, speculation should be limited to those who are actually in the business.


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Fuck!  I never thought I'd agree with our resident communist.



I couldn't be any further from a communist.  I'm just not a blind follower of the perverted US flavor of capitalism which obviously favors the political entrepreneur and the monopoly.  nor are any of my beliefs tied to a rigid ideology, they are all based on empirical data and change accordingly.


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## Dale Mabry (Jun 2, 2011)

The US economy will crash an burn and I have a front row seat to watch it.


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## Chubby (Jun 2, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> The US economy will crash an burn and I have a front row seat to watch it.


How stupid of you to take front row seat.  You will be the first one to taste the impact of the crash.  If I were you I would either get out or take the last row seat.


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## Dale Mabry (Jun 2, 2011)

chobby192 said:


> How stupid of you to take front row seat.  You will be the first one to taste the impact of the crash.  If I were you I would either get out or take the last row seat.



It's more fun, plus I won't taste the crash at all.


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> The US economy will crash an burn and I have a front row seat to watch it.



i would find more humor in it if those causing the problems at the top actually felt the effects.  wall street unemployment rates never really go beyond 4%.

economics is really not that confusing until you get down to the macro level but it is made to sound/look more than it is at some levels to discourage self-learning.  globalization also causes so many problems now in evaluating macro.

when you compare the GDP's of OECD countries and especially the highly industrialized/advanced ones like the US and UK they have all fallen significantly since 1980.  and in just about all OECD countries the nation's share of income going to labor has also taken a fucking beating, ever decreasing while the labor pool and populations continue to grow.

I'm pretty sure things will get worst when the CIS becomes a full OECD member and we start to "trade" with them.

privatization also decreases the share of income generated by labor but people still haven't caught on to this.

population control is more important now then ever in the US, it should be free and readily available.


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## Dale Mabry (Jun 2, 2011)

LAM said:


> i would find more humor in it if those causing the problems at the top actually felt the effects.  wall street unemployment rates never really go beyond 4%.
> 
> economics is really not that confusing until you get down to the macro level but it is made to sound/look more than it is at some levels to discourage self-learning.  globalization also causes so many problems now in evaluating macro.
> 
> ...



The next time it happens Wall Street will feel it.  If they don',t expect what's going on in Syria and the Middle East to start happening here.


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> The next time it happens Wall Street will feel it.  If they don',t expect what's going on in Syria and the Middle East to start happening here.



how do you get American's to turn off their tv's and pick up a book when half are illiterate or can't understand reading above the 10th grade level?

tv was designed to entertain but now it is used to "inform" people of everything they need to know, to keep them consuming.

the US military complex is bankrupting the country but to mention a decrease in that budget makes you "for" terrorism...military contractors have outsourced production and labor then "import" the finished products back into the US tariff free, all so us taxpayers can pay a premium on these goods...lol @ 700B a year on the military


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## DecaConstruction (Jun 2, 2011)

The economy is just one big house of cards where the richer get richer and the poorer get poorer....If the Feds raise rates, no one will survive....what "recovery" have we seen thus far?  NONE - Don't let the DOW JONES fool you - it's just a number that will only get smaller.


*U.S. N[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][SIZE=+2]ATIONAL[/SIZE][/FONT]* [FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][SIZE=+3]*D*[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][SIZE=+2]*EBT*[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][SIZE=+3]*C*[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][SIZE=+2]*LOCK*[/SIZE][/FONT] 

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The Outstanding Public Debt as of 02 Jun 2011 at 07:19:54 PM GMT is:
[/FONT]
	

	
	
		
		

		
			




[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The estimated population of the United States is *310,680,876*
so each citizen's share of this debt is *$46,195.91*. The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
*$3.98 billion per day* since September 28, 2007!

[/FONT]


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## Dale Mabry (Jun 2, 2011)

LAM said:


> how do you get American's to turn off their tv's and pick up a book when half are illiterate or can't understand reading above the 10th grade level?



Make it so they can't afford to watch it.


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 2, 2011)

LAM said:


> I couldn't be any further from a communist.  I'm just not a blind follower of the perverted US flavor of capitalism which obviously favors the political entrepreneur and the monopoly.  nor are any of my beliefs tied to a rigid ideology, they are all based on empirical data and change accordingly.




And, hardcore democratic ideology.  Hence, the sacred cow, Barry.


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> And, hardcore democratic ideology.  Hence, the sacred cow, Barry.



why is anything anti-GOP either liberal or considered hardline democrat.  I just have no desire to live in a banana republic nor do I really want my friends children to grow up in such a place.  obviously you have no problems with it, hence your embrace of the neo-liberal economic doctrine.


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 2, 2011)

Nah, you just seem to defend any and all of Barry's policies unconditionally, while bashing anything put forth by the GOP.  In more conservative circles, there is always room for debate and disagreement on any issue.  Yet, in leftist/liberal circles, there is rarely any dissent.  Leftists seem to walk lock-step, in group think.  I rarely meet a leftist/liberal that doesn't buy everything on the democratic menu, from climate change (aka global warming), to govt spending, to the eradication of religious expression.  Not really making a point here, just an observation.


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Nah, you just seem to defend any and all of Barry's policies unconditionally, while bashing anything put forth by the GOP.



what policy's have the GOP brought to the table that will not make things worst in the short and long term?  besides encouraging off-shore drilling while imposing zero improvements in safety since the deep water horizon disaster....


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 2, 2011)

I don't see the dems proposing anything other than more spending and taxes; digging us further into the hole we are in.  The "cuts" they propose are in the range of a trillion over ten years.  That would be similar to you or I revising our household budget, trying to avoid bankruptcy by cutting $20/month over the next 5-10 years.  

Obama seems to agree with most of us conservatives, at least as far as Brazil is concerned.  If offshore is drilling is destructive to the environment, then shouldn't Obama be consistent and tell Brazil that we want no part of it and won't buy their oil?


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## Dale Mabry (Jun 2, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> I rarely meet a leftist/liberal that doesn't buy everything on the democratic menu, from climate change (aka global warming),



You are joking about this, right?  You know there is not a single scientific organization on the planet in any discipline that doesn't agree that global warming is real and is significantly caused by us?  Only 6 scientific organizations hold non-committal positions. 90% of scientists believe global warming is real and 82% believe we significantly impact it.  97% of all CLIMATE scientists believe both positions.  Honestly, do you really think there is an argument, outside of Fox News headquarters and maybe the special ed department of a really bad school district, about this?  The fact is, the only debate is whether or not we want to pay for it.


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 2, 2011)

*Folks,

Of course you're free to say and post what you want in this thread (an anywhere).

But this thread is not about the "Dems" vs. "Repubs" or Obama.

It's about the course the US has been taking for the last 6 decades.*


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

sorry Smoothy...

I think one of the biggest problems is there is simply a general lack of knowledge across the US in regards to the severity of the countries current economic status and lack of employment in just about all sectors.

many think this is just "another" recession, they don't realize this is as good as it gets and goes nowhere but down from here.


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 2, 2011)

Dale, you're going to have to back up your claim that ALL scientists agree that humans are causing climate change with some solid sources.  I'm to lazy to google any of that shit right now.  

What I believe is that the climate has, and always will, go through changes.  That the current cycle is natural and not caused by industrialization, anymore than the end of the last ice age, or the eradication of the dinosaurs, was caused by you and I driving SUVs.  

Why do you think fish bones can be found underground in deserts?  Why are there skeletons of prehistoric animals underground in the north pole?  Because the friggin climate was different thousands of years ago, in those areas, then it is now.  It's not because of evil capitalism!  And, wealthy nations redistributing their wealth to poor nations (as is always the suggested solution) will not stop completely natural climate changes from happening now.


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## oufinny (Jun 2, 2011)

Sadly I agree with you on this LAM... Shit is real bad right now and nothing is getting done by anyone.  If Moody's downgrades the US credit rating it will really, really get ugly.


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## oufinny (Jun 2, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Dale, you're going to have to back up your claim that ALL scientists agree that humans are causing climate change with some solid sources.  I'm to lazy to google any of that shit right now.
> 
> What I believe is that the climate has, and always will, go through changes.  That the current cycle is natural and not caused by industrialization, anymore than the end of the last ice age, or the eradication of the dinosaurs, was caused by you and I driving SUVs.
> 
> Why do you think fish bones can be found underground in deserts?  Why are there skeletons of prehistoric animals underground in the north pole?  Because the friggin climate was different thousands of years ago, in those areas, then it is now.  It's not because of evil capitalism!  And, wealthy nations redistributing their wealth to poor nations (as is always the suggested solution) will not stop completely natural climate changes from happening now.



I do agree with some of this though there is no mistakingly that climate change is effected by the carbon emissions in the atmosphere.  Is it the only reason, I don't believe so just like we know the hole in the ozone layer by the south pole is actually a natural occurrence.


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 2, 2011)

I don't think there is any disagreement that carbon emission cause global warming.  But, how much of those emission are caused by burning coal and the sudden pandemic problem of cow flatulance?  

Would transferring billions to 3rd world countries prevent a natural cycle of climate change, which happens every 26,000 years, from occurring?  Sounds like a battle b/w socialist and capitalist ideology if you axe me.


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> I don't think there is any disagreement that carbon emission cause global warming.  But, how much of those emission are caused by burning coal and the sudden pandemic problem of cow flatulance?
> 
> Would transferring billions to 3rd world countries prevent a natural cycle of climate change, which happens every 26,000 years, from occurring?  Sounds like a battle b/w socialist and capitalist ideology if you axe me.



the changes in the geographic locations of global manufacturing has nothing to do with climate change and everything to do with paying the least amount for labor as possible.  it is also true that developing nations have less strict standards on emissions but as you should know even China is making changes regarding that as it is now paying the price for a lack of environmental protection policy from previous decades.  

I enclosed a graph showing data collected from 1990-2003 from the IMF.


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 2, 2011)

There is no question that less developed nations care a lot less about pollution.  I've spent a good bit of time in China, and I've seen, first hand, how concerned they are about carbon emissions.  It is better in larger cities, like Beijing and Shanghai.  But in 90% of the country, the pollution is almost as bad as it was in Birmingham, AL when the steel industry was at its peak here and you'd have a layer of soot on your car at the end of the day.

 In less developed countries, they are are far more concerned about growing their economy and improving their living standards than they are about ideology or a fish that may be on the endangered species list.


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## maniclion (Jun 2, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> I don't think there is any disagreement that carbon emission cause global warming.  But, how much of those emission are caused by burning coal and the sudden pandemic problem of cow flatulance?
> 
> Would transferring billions to 3rd world countries prevent a natural cycle of climate change, which happens every 26,000 years, from occurring?  Sounds like a battle b/w socialist and capitalist ideology if you axe me.



Should we continue to contribute to rapid global warming or change our ways and give ourselves time to adapt?  How can u say places like Mexico City, which puts so much smog in the air it looks worse everyday than the occasional volcanic vog and forest fire smoke contribute, arent making detrimental impacts?


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 2, 2011)

LAM said:


> many think this is just "another" recession, they don't realize this is as good as it gets and goes nowhere but down from here.



I agree with you LAM, and I think it's going to be a very rough ride in the future.

It's going to be like a slow drain.


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## LAM (Jun 2, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> I agree with you LAM, and I think it's going to be a very rough ride in the future.
> 
> It's going to be like a slow drain.



this transition is exactly what Marx had foretold.  he stated that "when" the US gov became intermingled with the "free markets" it would be the end of capitalism and democracy in the US.  even Roosevelt warned of what would happen if the fed gov did not control the markets:

"The great corporations which we have grown to speak of rather loosely as trusts are the creatures of the State, and the State not only has the right to control them wherever need of such control is shown but it is in duty bound to control them,"

Theodore Roosevelt, 1901


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## Dale Mabry (Jun 3, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Dale, you're going to have to back up your claim that ALL scientists agree that humans are causing climate change with some solid sources.  I'm to lazy to google any of that shit right now.
> 
> What I believe is that the climate has, and always will, go through changes.  That the current cycle is natural and not caused by industrialization, anymore than the end of the last ice age, or the eradication of the dinosaurs, was caused by you and I driving SUVs.
> 
> Why do you think fish bones can be found underground in deserts?  Why are there skeletons of prehistoric animals underground in the north pole?  Because the friggin climate was different thousands of years ago, in those areas, then it is now.  It's not because of evil capitalism!  And, wealthy nations redistributing their wealth to poor nations (as is always the suggested solution) will not stop completely natural climate changes from happening now.



Surveyed scientists agree global warming is real - CNN

Global warming controversy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

From above:

The controversy is significantly more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature,[1][2] where there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view,[3][4] though a few organisations hold non-committal positions


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## -Hammer (Jun 3, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> *Folks,*
> 
> *Of course you're free to say and post what you want in this thread (an anywhere).*
> 
> ...


 
Yup the 1950's definately trigger the States downfall.


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 3, 2011)

maniclion said:


> Should we continue to contribute to rapid global warming or change our ways and give ourselves time to adapt?  How can u say places like Mexico City, which puts so much smog in the air it looks worse everyday than the occasional volcanic vog and forest fire smoke contribute, arent making detrimental impacts?



The irony of the Kyoto Protocol is that some of the worst polluters, China, India, Mexico, would be exempt.  The developed nations would be footing the bill.  If there is going to be an international effort, every country that pollutes should take part.


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 3, 2011)

Well, on the jobs front, one company is hiring.  Mickey-Ds.  McDonald's.  

Perhaps this is a signal of where to apply for work by the millions of unemployed and under-employed.
---*
Half of Last Month's New Jobs Came from a Single Employer — McDonald's*
11:13 AM, Jun 3, 2011 • By MARK HEMINGWAY

According to the unemployment data released this morning, the economy added only 54,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate up to 9.1 percent. However, this report from MarketWatch suggests data is much worse than that:

*McDonald’s ran a big hiring day on April 19 — after the Labor Department’s April survey for the payrolls report was conducted — in which 62,000 jobs were added. That’s not a net number, of course, and seasonal adjustment will reduce the Hamburglar impact on payrolls.* (In simpler terms — restaurants always staff up for the summer; the Labor Department makes allowance for this effect.) Morgan Stanley estimates McDonald’s hiring will boost the overall number by 25,000 to 30,000. The Labor Department won’t detail an exact McDonald’s figure — they won’t identify any company they survey — but there will be data in the report to give a rough estimate.
*
If Morgan Stanley is correct, about half of last month's job growth came from the venerable fast-food chain.* That is hardly the sign of a healthy economy.

Link: Half of Last Month's New Jobs Came from a Single Employer


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## maniclion (Jun 3, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> The irony of the Kyoto Protocol is that some of the worst polluters, China, India, Mexico, would be exempt.  The developed nations would be footing the bill.  If there is going to be an international effort, every country that pollutes should take part.


I agree, those nations shuld pay the stiffest penalties cause they are going to be more prone to do it....

I really hate to think how bad pollution is in the Yangtze from the 3 Gorges Dam with all those cities and towns flooded, sewage plants, factories, garbage dumps, possible toxic waste dumps all being flooded and washed down river to pool in the reservoir.  I like to think small Hydroelectric Dams help us from using heavy polutants like coal, but on a scale that large so much plant life was destroyed how much less carbon dioxide is not being converted?

"Deforestation is another factor that refutes China???s claim that the Three Gorges Dam is a ???clean??? energy source. Forests are a major carbon sink and work to negate greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. However, the process of deforestation (burning trees) actually emits carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and is responsible for 20% of the world???s greenhouse gas emissions. 
An immense amount of deforestation occurred for the construction of this project, mainly to provide farmland in the surrounding areas for those whose homes and farms were flooded by the reservoir. Much of this land is located on the steep slopes of the gorges, and has been determined as unsuitable land for farming. In addition, the three gorges dam area is geographically unstable, and deforestation has increased the risk of landslides. Because of this, residents are being forced to relocate for a second time."


----------



## LAM (Jun 3, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> Well, on the jobs front, one company is hiring.  Mickey-Ds.  McDonald's.



I think their pay range in the US is close to $7-14/hr. which means on avg about a $1/hr increase every 3 years based on current CPI trends.

what's even worst is that as the economy gets worst and worst for the "labor" class as the national income shrinks for them more people are going to be eating their since the food is do dang cheap.


----------



## LAM (Jun 3, 2011)

Inflation rises at fastest rate since October 2008
Consumer prices rise at an annual rate of 3.2% in April - May. 13, 2011

high Inflation + high unemployment + high underemployment + low and/or stagnant wages. 

1988 average worker income was $33.5k, in 2008 the average worker income was $33k

Major Factors :

Trade Imbalances - A stronger dollar worsens the trade deficit (as imports increase and exports fall).

Monetary Policy imposed by the FRB - keep interest rates far too low for to long, killing the national savings rate.  low interest rates on personal savings also discouraged people to do so.

Manufacturing moves jobs and middle management positions off-shore, 50K US jobs a month lost to China since 2001.  loss of low/semi-skilled labor jobs, labor pool at the bottom of the education/training ladder increases.  as workers shift to other industry's (service, etc.), the increasing supply of workers pushes wages lower, as does having workers stay in the work force longer.

- also the finished process of manufacturing and assembly, etc. of US goods overseas allows many of these products to be imported tariff free if 65% of the materials used come from US sources.  these goods are then sold back to US consumers at substantial profits.  this includes everything from autos to military goods and smaller consumables, electronics, etc..

Privatization eliminates opportunity and funnels money to the top.  Company's focus on serving the shareholders and not the consumers, non-sales workers salaries are neglected.

Lack of collective bargaining for those whose only source of incomes comes from wages.  CPI is ineffective as it tries to adjust wages in a linear fashion when costs do not increase in the same manner.


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jun 3, 2011)

> 1988 average worker income was $33.5k, in 2008 the average worker income was $33k



LAM,

This is a frightening statistic.  Very frightening.....


----------



## LAM (Jun 3, 2011)

especially since the price of homes, college, cars, health-care, etc. have all increased several hundred percent above the "increases" in wages.  once adjusted for inflation many or making less now than they were 20 years ago.  many in the US have no real concept of wages and buying power, income, wealth, inflation, etc.  when people hear these terms they nod as if they understand them but they really don't or they would have saved more despite what the tv told them to buy.

with a shortage of jobs and labor surplus, having multiple jobs isn't even an option anymore.  sad times when people are "happy" just having one POS job.

I worked multiple jobs before the service in the late 80's and after I got out in the early 90's to about 2002.  that's when I was doing R&D during the day and mortgages at night and on the weekends.  I did that for 6-7 years, that's how I was able to "get ahead" financially.  even then wages were not that great until I went to work in san jose, once you get in at the billion dollar company level and up wages are nice, but jobs are few.  

since about 2000, I have not heard of anyone that I know in any metro across the country to be able obtain full and part time employment, I do not believe this is a viable option anymore nor will it ever be again.


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jun 4, 2011)

LAM said:


> *since about 2000, I have not heard of anyone that I know in any metro across the country to be able obtain full and part time employment,* I do not believe this is a viable option anymore nor will it ever be again.



LAM,

Please elaborate on the part in bold.  

Do you mean in a particular industry? Or, do you mean all-around?


----------



## LAM (Jun 4, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> LAM,
> 
> Please elaborate on the part in bold.
> 
> Do you mean in a particular industry? Or, do you mean all-around?



year round or multiple jobs in any combination of industry, there simply are no opportunity's.  everyone has 1 job now.

after graduated college and before joining the military I worked as a landscaper during the day and a line cook at night.  lots of us had 2 jobs back then in the mid-late 80's.  one was not enough to pay bills and have extra spending money.  all those labor jobs have been taken by the guatemalans, that started in PA about late 80's-early 90's.  go NAFTA....

same thing when I got out in 94-95.  I had full time salary in IT during the day and did the mortgage thing part time.  many of my friends were doing the salary thing in the day and bartending at night or weekends picking up a couple of shifts.  I'd have to say a good 40% of my teachers friends did that back then.  now even my full-time bartender friends are struggling, so part-time work is almost non-existent.

I spoke to one of my buddies from PA the other day and one of the local watering holes that we pretty much lived at since HS has even closed and it was booming when I moved away in 99-00.  and this is right off the main line in philly, upper-upper "middle-class" with median house-hold incomes in the 200k-300K range.  not a good sign at all.....


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Jun 4, 2011)

I have to say that I agree with the above.  LAM seems to think that I am always defending Wall Street and praising trickle down economics for some reason.  But, the last round of bail-outs should be proof enough for everyone that nothing trickles down.  It only props up Wall Street.  I am glad that it boosted my IRA a bit though.  That will help when I cash that fukker in here in a few weeks to pay bills, and take a big one up the ass from the IRS for doing so.  

And our president is touting a great "recovery".lol  The fact is, the economy is just as deep in the shitter now as it was when he was sworn in as president.  He is just as big of a failure as GWB and anyone who doesn't see this is kidding themselves, not that it really matters who's fault it is.  It just is what it is.  A few years ago,  I had recruiters calling me daily about banking jobs.  Now, I can't even get a gig in a branch selling checking accounts.  

I will probably be moving to China soon, to go back to teaching, as there is nothing for me here.  At least there, I can make a pretty good living teaching supply-side economics and spreading evil right-wing ideology.


----------



## LAM (Jun 4, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> And our president is touting a great "recovery".lol  The fact is, the economy is just as deep in the shitter now as it was when he was sworn in as president.  He is just as big of a failure as GWB and anyone who doesn't see this is kidding themselves, not that it really matters who's fault it is.  It just is what it is.  A few years ago,  I had recruiters calling me daily about banking jobs.  Now, I can't even get a gig in a branch selling checking accounts.



the recovery from the 2007 recession is just like in 2001, another jobless recovery, thanks to globalization and outsourcing.  the recovery from the next "depression" when the market tumbles when QE2 fails will be jobless, and will be much worst then in 2007.   

each recession gets worst and worst for those at the bottom of the wage ladder as their wealth gets transferred to the top. low/stagnant wages in the US were a major contributor to the 2007 recession (and every US recession since 1929) and in the slow "recovery" along with the ever increasing wage inequality.  wages have remained constant or decreased for many at the bottom of the wage ladder while inflation has reduced the buying power of those wages to that equal of the 1980 dollar, but goods are all in 2011 prices...this causes a "slight" problem

credit has been cut off to the middle class because the banks know there are no real increases in wages coming now or in the future only adjustments to cover inflation, this is where the outdated CPI comes into play.  with home values decreasing and a loss of equity the middle class has no wealth anymore or ability to pay down revolving credit except to reduce consumer spending, so it has been cut off.  people at the bottom only have 1 source of income, in the form of wages while those at the top have income coming in 7-10 different ways.

my canadian gf just got a letter from BOA, her interest rate on her cc was raised to 19%, her mid FICO score is 766 and average monthly balance is $0...fuck the banking system in the US

those that thought Obama was going to save the US and turn things around were not well read on the local/global effects of neo-liberalism or in economics in general.  he has done everything I expected him to do, fight for the remaining social protections that American citizens have to protect themselves from the harsh edges of the US brand of "capitalism".  people don't realize the fed gov created the corporations and is the only entity that can change things.  reduce the size of the government, take away social protections, more power goes to the banks and multi-national/trans-national corps and all is lost in America forever and hello Banana Republic, the new US.

economics is a science, ideology/belief systems have no place in science...


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Jun 4, 2011)

Come on!  Do you seriously think Obama is fighting for a damn thing?  He strikes me as cookie cutter, empty suit politician, who has frankly, shelved a lot of his own ideology for the job.  While he has upset most of us conservatives, as expected, he has also disappointed most of his own far left base, by not following through on so many promises that he was elected on.  Up until the 2012 election, Obama will be whatever he needs to be in order to be re-elected.  

Frankly, I don't give a fuck anymore.  I'm heading back across the pond.   Our country is going down the tubes.  I should have stayed in China.  I won't make the same mistake again.


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 5, 2011)

LAM said:


> year round or multiple jobs in any combination of industry, there simply are no opportunity's.  everyone has 1 job now.



Thanks for the info and clarification.



> I'd have to say a good 40% of my teachers friends did that back then.  now even my full-time bartender friends are struggling, so part-time work is almost non-existent.



I witness the same thing in the Seattle area.  Nobody is really busy, regardless of their job.  And if you have a crappy job (quite common actually) you will be in it for a while.  Perhaps a long while. 



> I spoke to one of my buddies from PA the other day and one of the local watering holes that we pretty much lived at since HS has even closed and it was booming when I moved away in 99-00.  and this is right off the main line in philly, upper-upper "middle-class" with median house-hold incomes in the 200k-300K range.  not a good sign at all.....



In the upper-upper middle class areas of where I live some business that have operated for 40+ years, just closed down.  They retired early or just couldn't make it.  Furniture shops, long-time well known restaurants, Home Depot, etc.


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jun 5, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> I will probably be moving to China soon, to go back to teaching, as there is nothing for me here.  At least there, I can make a pretty good living teaching supply-side economics and spreading evil right-wing ideology.



You were in EFL, Gears?

I am teaching in Vietnam now doing mostly test preparation.  I enjoy it, but I also know that if I go back to the US now, I may have a very hard time, even getting a dead-end job where I am from.  Simply too many people out of work and looking for anything they can get.  

Some of my family members and friends from HS.  They were and are not lazy or unambitious.  Many of them were they "ambitious" types.


----------



## Dale Mabry (Jun 5, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> I have to say that I agree with the above.  LAM seems to think that I am always defending Wall Street and praising trickle down economics for some reason.  But, the last round of bail-outs should be proof enough for everyone that nothing trickles down.  It only props up Wall Street.  I am glad that it boosted my IRA a bit though.  That will help when I cash that fukker in here in a few weeks to pay bills, and take a big one up the ass from the IRS for doing so.
> 
> And our president is touting a great "recovery".lol  The fact is, the economy is just as deep in the shitter now as it was when he was sworn in as president.  He is just as big of a failure as GWB and anyone who doesn't see this is kidding themselves, not that it really matters who's fault it is.  It just is what it is.  A few years ago,  I had recruiters calling me daily about banking jobs.  Now, I can't even get a gig in a branch selling checking accounts.
> 
> I will probably be moving to China soon, to go back to teaching, as there is nothing for me here.  At least there, I can make a pretty good living teaching supply-side economics and spreading evil right-wing ideology.



I'd like to get the hell out of here as well, was thinking Norway/Sweden, just because their quality of life is pretty good and they live forever.  Plus, yo can't beat the scenery.


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Jun 5, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> You were in EFL, Gears?



Nah, I worked at a business school in NE China, a city called Changchun.  I was teaching economics, financial planning, and sociology (lol).  I don't have any EFL certification, but I may take a gig teaching english when I go back.  I'm hoping to find a gig in Beijing, but the EFL gigs don't pay much.  So, I will prolly try to get back with the same school in Changchun initially.  I loved the environment, other than the weather.  It was cold as fuck, -30 to -40C in the dead of winter sometimes.


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 5, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Nah, I worked at a business school in NE China, a city called Changchun.  I was teaching economics, financial planning, and sociology (lol).  I don't have any EFL certification, but I may take a gig teaching english when I go back.  I'm hoping to find a gig in Beijing, but the EFL gigs don't pay much.  So, I will prolly try to get back with the same school in Changchun initially.  I loved the environment, other than the weather.  It was cold as fuck, -30 to -40C in the dead of winter sometimes.



Cheer, Gears.

You only need the minimal EFL cert if you want to do EFL to get your foot in the door, before you find a better gig.

I don't know China well.

Good luck and keep me posted.


----------



## LAM (Jun 5, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> I am teaching in Vietnam now doing mostly test preparation.  I enjoy it, but I also know that if I go back to the US now, I may have a very hard time, even getting a dead-end job where I am from.  Simply too many people out of work and looking for anything they can get.
> 
> Some of my family members and friends from HS.  They were and are not lazy or unambitious.  Many of them were they "ambitious" types.



do you know anyone over in Sri Lanka?  I have a lot of friends over there doing volunteer work I'm thinking about making a move there for a couple of years.


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Jun 5, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> Cheer, Gears.
> 
> You only need the minimal EFL cert if you want to do EFL to get your foot in the door, before you find a better gig.
> 
> ...



How are you liking Vietnam?  Changchun, China was nice, and not a lot different than living in say, Detriot.  It was crowded, polluted, and the people had horrible manners (spitting on the floor in restaurants, flipping ashes on the floor, honking, etc.).  But, otherwise, it was a fun city.  Vietnam seems like it would be a bit too 3rd world.  Of course, I've never been there, so IDK.


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 5, 2011)

LAM said:


> do you know anyone over in Sri Lanka?  I have a lot of friends over there doing volunteer work I'm thinking about making a move there for a couple of years.



An acquaintance of mine went on vacation to there recently with his family.

He loves it. 

Probably some expat forums on the web and the web probably has good information. 

Could be a good change.  I assume it's affordable to live there.  Go for it.


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 5, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> How are you liking Vietnam?



Conditions are good for now.  Hanoi has been working conditions that Saigon.  Better work, higher wages etc.  Saigon has lower wages and also more people competing for teaching gigs, however, by teaching what you teach you are in a different market.  You could check out RMIT University (Royal Melbourne University) online and other places.

There have been work permit screw ups and visa issues here, but it's manageable.

I take it month by month.  I think Hanoi has 3-6 years left to worth teaching in, perhaps more.

It's either Kids or test preparation such as IELTS and TOELF iBT, now.

General English is fading. 




> Changchun, China was nice, and not a lot different than living in say, Detriot.  It was crowded, polluted, and the people had horrible manners (spitting on the floor in restaurants, flipping ashes on the floor, honking, etc.).  But, otherwise, it was a fun city.



China is so big and vast and different that I hear all kinds of different experiences positive, neutral, and negative. 



> Vietnam seems like it would be a bit too 3rd world.  Of course, I've never been there, so IDK.



VN is now not classified as "3rd world" and Hanoi and Saigon are like regular world cities, for the most part.

Lot of investment money was coming in, 13th talled building in the world being built, and lots of "aid" which means lots of corruption, stolen money, and a real-estate bubble.

Price per square meter in Hanoi is the same as Tokyo and Hong Kong and Manhattan.  Everyone know this is a joke. 

There may be some waves coming: currency here was devalued by 9% overnight for the 3 rd devaluation in 16 months, stock market prices are the same as a bowl of rice for many companies and the Vinashin scandal just got worse.

Inflation is at over 20%.

Could be some interesting times for some.  I don't really feel it, but the locals do.


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## GearsMcGilf (Jun 5, 2011)

It sounds similar to many of the places I've visited in China.  I hope to, and may very well, take a peek at some of those cities in VN eventually.  It may sound crazy, but one place I'd love to visit is North Korea.  Pyongyang is like a Stalinist amusement park, from what I've heard.  But, if you are able to look at the rest of the country, it is depressing; the worst poverty you can imagine.  I'd like to see N.Korea, but you can't get in with a US passport.


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## Big Smoothy (Jun 13, 2011)

Bill Gross notes what people don't want to discuss.  How much has the US gov promised to pay?  And, they have no way of paying it.
--
*US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross*
Published: Monday, 13 Jun 2011 

By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer

*
When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC Monday.*

Bill Gross
*
Much of the public focus is on the nation's public debt, which is $14.3 trillion. But that doesn't include money guaranteed for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which comes to close to $50 trillion, according to government figures.*

The government also is on the hook for other debts such as the programs related to the bailout of the financial system following the crisis of 2008 and 2009, government figures show.
*
Taken together, Gross puts the total at "nearly $100 trillion,"* that while perhaps a bit on the high side, places the country in a highly unenviable fiscal position that he said won't find a solution overnight.

Entire: News Headlines


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## LAM (Jun 13, 2011)

It certainly doesn't help that the US collects the least amount of taxes as compared to all other OECD countries and we have the most about of Global 500 company's by far. 

 Also when you look at the amount of governments spending it is the 3rd lowest in the OECD, and the population of the US is one of the highest of all OECD countries.

things don't add up....we shouldn't have the budget problems that we have


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## Big Smoothy (Jul 18, 2011)

Erm....the recession ended? Oh, I missed that....
--*
Analysis: Flat jobs data signal weakest recovery in decades*
By PAUL WISEMAN - AP Economics Writer | AP ??? Fri, Jul 8, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) ??? *The job market is defying history.A dismal June employment report shows that employers are adding nowhere near as many jobs as they normally do this long after a recession has ended.*

Yahoo!


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jul 18, 2011)

Erm....the recession ended? Oh, I missed that....
--*
Analysis: Flat jobs data signal weakest recovery in decades*
By PAUL WISEMAN - AP Economics Writer | AP – Fri, Jul 8, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) — *The job market is defying history.A dismal June employment report shows that employers are adding nowhere near as many jobs as they normally do this long after a recession has ended.*

Yahoo!


----------



## Dale Mabry (Jul 18, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> Erm....the recession ended? Oh, I missed that....
> --*
> Analysis: Flat jobs data signal weakest recovery in decades*
> By PAUL WISEMAN - AP Economics Writer | AP ??? Fri, Jul 8, 2011
> ...



Sounds like we need another round of tax cuts, there must not be enough money in the job creators' coffers.


----------



## LAM (Jul 18, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> Sounds like we need another round of tax cuts, there must not be enough money in the job creators' coffers.



according to GOP douche bag Herman Cain that's what's needed to create jobs.  after all that's what economic history and the empirical data has shown over the past 30 years....

the fucking shit that comes out of these politicians mouths is insulting to those of us that know the truth but the sheep gobble it up...


----------



## Zaphod (Jul 18, 2011)

LAM said:


> according to GOP douche bag Herman Cain that's what's needed to create jobs.  after all that's what economic history and the empirical data has shown over the past 30 years....
> 
> the fucking shit that comes out of these politicians mouths is insulting to those of us that know the truth but the sheep gobble it up...



The GOP uses data?  Or is it the kind they just sort of make up as they go?


----------



## Dale Mabry (Jul 18, 2011)

LAM said:


> according to GOP douche bag Herman Cain that's what's needed to create jobs.  after all that's what economic history and the empirical data has shown over the past 30 years....
> 
> the fucking shit that comes out of these politicians mouths is insulting to those of us that know the truth but the sheep gobble it up...



What makes me completely lose faith in humanity is that Obama got elected to change the way things were being done.  Wall Street fucked us all and we needed to gt the country back.  So, he was elected and proceeded to keep the same assholes in charge and slowly added members of wall street to his cabinet.


----------



## LAM (Jul 18, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> What makes me completely lose faith in humanity is that Obama got elected to change the way things were being done.  Wall Street fucked us all and we needed to gt the country back.  So, he was elected and proceeded to keep the same assholes in charge and slowly added members of wall street to his cabinet.



they are all puppets of big business and wallstreet.  some a little less and some a little more than the rest.  once "money" became a factor in US politics it was the end of democracy here.  there's like 10-11 people in his admin that either current or prior members of the TC.  nothing can stop neo-liberalism in the US, you can only impede it.


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jul 18, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> Sounds like we need another round of tax cuts, there must not be enough money in the job creators' coffers.



Corporate profits up; worker productivity up.

The ol' tax cut line.  It never goes away.


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jul 18, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> What makes me completely lose faith in humanity is that Obama got elected to change the way things were being done.  Wall Street fucked us all and we needed to gt the country back.  *So, he was elected and proceeded to keep the same assholes in charge and slowly added members of wall street to his cabinet*.



Exactly.

It's all the same, but with different names and faces.  

From Wall Street to Washington, back to Wall Street, then back to Washington.


As Celente (and many others say): _Wall Street runs Washington._


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Jul 18, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> Sounds like we need another round of tax cuts, there must not be enough money in the job creators' coffers.



You're wrong!  What we need is for the government to spend another 600-700 trillion dollars and dramatically raise taxes, both on corporations and individuals.  That is the only solution to pull us out of this mess.  FDR proved that Keynesian economics is the fastest way out of a depression (well, that and WWII).  Afterall, look at the great Summer of recovery we had a year ago.  Obamanomics saved us from economic collapse.   

Let's borrow another trillion from China and jack up taxes on everyone to cover it (or perhaps just spend the additional revenue).  That's the ticket.  It's basic economics 101.  Never failed us before.

Here's a basic arithmetic question.  Which is greater, 40% of nothing or 25% of something?  That's what happens under a global economy.  Corporations can leave.  No matter how badly some of you class warfare whackjobs are foaming at the mouth to sock it to the rich, it's not gonna pull us out of the hole your president is digging us into.  The federal govt is going to pull in about 18%.  It doesn't matter if they raised the top tier bracket to 80%, they will get about 18%.  They can raise corp taxes all they want and send even more business overseas if it makes the class warfare junnkies feel better.  But, about 18% is what they're gonna get.


----------



## Dale Mabry (Jul 19, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> You're wrong!  What we need is for the government to spend another 600-700 trillion dollars and dramatically raise taxes, both on corporations and individuals.  That is the only solution to pull us out of this mess.  FDR proved that Keynesian economics is the fastest way out of a depression (well, that and WWII).  Afterall, look at the great Summer of recovery we had a year ago.  Obamanomics saved us from economic collapse.
> 
> Let's borrow another trillion from China and jack up taxes on everyone to cover it (or perhaps just spend the additional revenue).  That's the ticket.  It's basic economics 101.  Never failed us before.
> 
> Here's a basic arithmetic question.  Which is greater, 40% of nothing or 25% of something?  That's what happens under a global economy.  Corporations can leave.  No matter how badly some of you class warfare whackjobs are foaming at the mouth to sock it to the rich, it's not gonna pull us out of the hole your president is digging us into.  The federal govt is going to pull in about 18%.  It doesn't matter if they raised the top tier bracket to 80%, they will get about 18%.  They can raise corp taxes all they want and send even more business overseas if it makes the class warfare junnkies feel better.  But, about 18% is what they're gonna get.



Corporations can leave, you have to entice them not to.  It doesn't matter what the corporate tax rate is, as long as they can pay pennies on the dollar for manpower overseas they will be there.  EVen if you dropped the tax rate to zero we can't compete.  By the way, I'm for raising taxes on everyone, not just the rich.  Whether or not you like to think so, revenue is going to have to increase.  Also, whether or not you want to believe it, the Bush and now Obama tax cuts are a significant reason we are here.  At the very least it could have paid for one of the 2 worthless wars we are in.  By the way, tax revenues aren't a zero sum game, I have no idea where you get that the gov will only get 18% no matter what the tax rates are. By the way, in relative terms of the size of the hole we are in, assuming we are digging a 6 foot hole, Obama has dug us from about 5'6" to 6' while that asshole before him dug us from 3'-5'6".


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## Big Smoothy (Jul 19, 2011)

Here is an article from Ray Dalio.  
-------
*Ray Dalio, the sixty-one-year-old founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund,*

Read more Ray Dalio : The New Yorker
*
Dalio believes that some heavily indebted countries, including the United States, will eventually opt for printing money as a way to deal with their debts, which will lead to a collapse in their currency and in their bond markets. “There hasn’t been a case in history where they haven’t eventually printed money and devalued their currency,” he said. Other developed countries, particularly those tied to the euro and thus to the European Central Bank, don’t have the option of printing money and are destined to undergo “classic depressions,” Dalio said. The recent deal to avoid an immediate debt default by Greece didn’t alter his pessimistic view. “People concentrate on the particular thing of the moment, and they forget the larger underlying forces,” he said. “That’s what got us into the debt crisis. It’s just today, today.”

Dalio’s assessment sounded alarmingly plausible. But when one plays the global financial markets a thorough economic analysis is only the first stage of the game. At least as important is getting the timing right. I asked Dalio when all this would start to come together*.* “I think late 2012 or early 2013 is going to be another very difficult period,” he said. ♦*

Entire: Ray Dalio : The New Yorker


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## Dale Mabry (Jul 19, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Here's a basic arithmetic question.  Which is greater, 40% of nothing or 25% of something?  That's what happens under a global economy.  Corporations can leave.  No matter how badly some of you class warfare whackjobs are foaming at the mouth to sock it to the rich, it's not gonna pull us out of the hole your president is digging us into.  The federal govt is going to pull in about 18%.  It doesn't matter if they raised the top tier bracket to 80%, they will get about 18%.  They can raise corp taxes all they want and send even more business overseas if it makes the class warfare junnkies feel better.  But, about 18% is what they're gonna get.



OK, Mr. Math, let's look at some actual numbers.  Here is a table of tax revenues as a % of GDP, which I assume is the 18% you are talking about.  The chart is here below the  graphs.

Federal Debt, Revenue and Expenditures as a Fraction of GDP | Department of Numbers

In 2010 we took in 16.26% of GDP in tax revenues and in 2000, we took in 20.68%.  If our current revenues were the same %age of GDP as they were in 2000, we would only pay off $643 billion of our debt per year, far more than any cuts the GOP or dems are proposing.  In fact, it would pay off $6.43 trillion over 10 years, basically halving it.  Much better than the $2-4 trillion being batted around now, merely from increasing tax receipts to 2000 levels, which, coincidentally, is when your lord and savior GWB decided to fuck everything up by dropping revenue and drastically increasing expenditures.


----------



## LAM (Jul 19, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> That's what happens under a global economy.  Corporations can leave.  No matter how badly some of you class warfare whackjobs are foaming at the mouth to sock it to the rich, it's not gonna pull us out of the hole your president is digging us into.



lol Gears denial is a bitch isn't it...neo-liberalism is so great you have to find work in Communist China!  time to wake the fuck up...

Bush dug the whole that we are in now..Clinton left him with surplus and GWB presided over the WORST ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN US HISTORY!  8 years of supply side tax cuts that created ZERO net jobs but with the cost of loan serving and the war in the middle east will cost the US 8-9T..what a great return on that investment.  the US is no safer but the multi-nationals have new contracts in Iraq are making money like no tomorrow and unemployment here is still at 9%.

every single economist in the world says to use deficit spending while rates are low to boost the economy while spending is reduced.  but nobody want to touch the 700B a year military budget because the GOP has scared the sheep into believing we actually need to spend more money than all of our allies combined to keep us "safe" from terrorists...


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Jul 19, 2011)

LAM said:


> lol Gears denial is a bitch isn't it...neo-liberalism is so great you have to find work in Communist China!



Yes, I know how ironic that is. lol  I know that Bush was one of the worst presidents of our time and I'd take a 3rd Clinton term over Bush or Obama in a heartbeat.  But, the massive deficit and mounting debt is going to drive the economy off a cliff.  Simply raising taxes won't dig us out.  I'm all for cutting the military budget dramatically, along with other areas of waste.  Simply raising taxes alone without taking a scalpel to other parts of the budget won't fix the problem.  I didn't like Bush's fear mongering to get us into Iraq anymore than I like Obama trying to scare old people in order to get a blank check to take us another $2T in debt.


----------



## Gissurjon (Jul 19, 2011)

Chubby said:


> Perfect combination of Socialism and Capitalism or middle ground?  Because I beleive both are two extreme opposite.



Couldn't agree with you more


----------



## Gissurjon (Jul 19, 2011)

LAM said:


> lol Gears denial is a bitch isn't it...neo-liberalism is so great you have to find work in Communist China!  time to wake the fuck up...
> 
> Bush dug the whole that we are in now..Clinton left him with surplus and GWB presided over the WORST ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN US HISTORY!  8 years of supply side tax cuts that created ZERO net jobs but with the cost of loan serving and the war in the middle east will cost the US 8-9T..what a great return on that investment.  the US is no safer but the multi-nationals have new contracts in Iraq are making money like no tomorrow and unemployment here is still at 9%.
> 
> every single economist in the world says to use deficit spending while rates are low to boost the economy while spending is reduced.  but nobody want to touch the *700B a year military budget because the GOP has scared the sheep into believing we actually need to spend more money than all of our allies combined to keep us "safe" from terrorists...*



One thing I don't understand, the republicans are really quick to refer to the founding fathers but only when it happens to benefit them. If i'm not mistaken the founding fathers foreign relations policy was to leave everyone the heck alone unless they messed with them (to put it simply). 

It's like the whole religion thing, people are quick to quote the bible when it makes them look good. The parts that don't fit their lifestyle, oh well we won't mention that.

Before some republican comes at me, i'm not a democrat. I think this categorization is crap, all it does is separate us. So do the terms babtist, catholic, muslim.... it's obvious there are greater differences between people within each party than with allot of people on opposite side of the isle.


----------



## Dale Mabry (Jul 19, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Yes, I know how ironic that is. lol  I know that Bush was one of the worst presidents of our time and I'd take a 3rd Clinton term over Bush or Obama in a heartbeat.  But, the massive deficit and mounting debt is going to drive the economy off a cliff.  Simply raising taxes won't dig us out.  I'm all for cutting the military budget dramatically, along with other areas of waste.  Simply raising taxes alone without taking a scalpel to other parts of the budget won't fix the problem.  I didn't like Bush's fear mongering to get us into Iraq anymore than I like Obama trying to scare old people in order to get a blank check to take us another $2T in debt.



Scalpel?  They need to take a machete to the motherfucker.  I don't think anyone is advocating making this up by only raising taxes, just that it can't be accomplished by only cutting discretionary spending.


----------



## LAM (Jul 19, 2011)

Gissurjon said:


> One thing I don't understand, the republicans are really quick to refer to the founding fathers but only when it happens to benefit them. If i'm not mistaken the founding fathers foreign relations policy was to leave everyone the heck alone unless they messed with them (to put it simply).
> 
> It's like the whole religion thing, people are quick to quote the bible when it makes them look good. The parts that don't fit their lifestyle, oh well we won't mention that.
> 
> Before some republican comes at me, i'm not a democrat. I think this categorization is crap, all it does is separate us. So do the terms babtist, catholic, muslim.... it's obvious there are greater differences between people within each party than with allot of people on opposite side of the isle.



the GOP always changes the rules when it doesn't suit them.  they bitched and moaned when the democrats used reconciliation to pass health care reform and re-named it the "nuclear option" which it indeed was not. regardless of the historical fact that THEY have used reconciliation in the past 75% MORE than the democrats, they are straight up cry babies when they don't get their way.


----------



## oufinny (Jul 19, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> Scalpel?  They need to take a machete to the motherfucker.  I don't think anyone is advocating making this up by only raising taxes, just that it can't be accomplished by only cutting discretionary spending.



There is a list of programs that are dead/dying/useless/firvolous, whatever you want to call them that will cut nearly a trillion off the budget that the GAO put forward yet you hear nothing on that.  The Heritage foundation did the same, the new Get Back to Black plan that was put forth in the last day does the same, slashes spending; the liberal (far left mind you) response, oh that is too much, we can do that.  Really, what the fuck do you propose we do then.  Where is a real, concrete plan that includes programs and solutions from the President?  I haven't seen shit, Boehner and the rest of congress haven't seen anything, you wonder why there is no effective debate going on.  The only plan brought to the table is from the Republicans (its far from perfect), but at least they have somewhere to start from.  The President and his followers keep changing some arbitrary number and the only constant is a return to the Clinton tax rates.  

There is a whole lot of posturing on both sides but if there were two plans to work from and come to something of a solution, we would be so much farther along in this debate.  The idea of a 5 month plan that is all spending cuts and a debt ceiling raise to allow for something substantive to come out of all of this really seems like the only way anything worth a shit will happen.  Both sides are too ideologically dug in and the desire for some huge package isn't helping.  Tackle one issue at a time, get the debt ceiling dealt with, get a budget in place that raises revenue via the removal of many loopholes, write offs and the like, raise taxes on the highest earners (i.e. make a new tax bracket that insulates many small businesses) and do major tax reform last.  

Oh, and for the love of god let's get some caps on the welfare program and get rid of Obamacare, both a dogs on the economy and do little to nothing to benefit the country.


----------



## LAM (Jul 19, 2011)

oufinny said:


> There is a list of programs that are dead/dying/useless/firvolous, whatever you want to call them that will cut nearly a trillion off the budget that the GAO put forward yet you hear nothing on that.  The Heritage foundation did the same, the new Get Back to Black plan that was put forth in the last day does the same, slashes spending; the liberal (far left mind you) response, oh that is too much, we can do that.  Really, what the fuck do you propose we do then.  Where is a real, concrete plan that includes programs and solutions from the President?  I haven't seen shit, Boehner and the rest of congress haven't seen anything, you wonder why there is no effective debate going on.



the Heritage Foundation is a joke, that's like believing fox news.  there is nothing credible about that organization.

the primary function of the POTUS is not writing legislation or law that is what the House is for it is THEIR primary function.  What legislation to date has the new speaker proposed that does or did not have to do with social issues? zero, zilch...none...


----------



## RAWS n More (Jul 19, 2011)

Hows that whole "Hope-change" working out for ya? Its sickening


----------



## oufinny (Jul 19, 2011)

LAM said:


> the Heritage Foundation is a joke, that's like believing fox news.  there is nothing credible about that organization.
> 
> the primary function of the POTUS is not writing legislation or law that is what the House is for it is THEIR primary function.  What legislation to date has the new speaker proposed that does or did not have to do with social issues? zero, zilch...none...



True, I was making a point, everyone has an agenda.  Ever watch CNN or MSNBC, they are about on their knees felating the President.  I don't care if the President is not going to write legislation, if he is going to back a program his party puts forth his ass better be involved in writing it even if he is not at the keyboard doing so.  I agree legislation should start in congress but the President should lead not be lead by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.  He flips back and forth every other day, what kind of leading is that?  There are a lot of people getting a whole lot of nothing done and there is plenty of blame to go around.

As for your comment on an outside lobbyist providing suggestions, I could give a shit if they have an agenda if the ideas presented are sound.  I don't have time to read 900 pages of reductions to federal programs but if there are good ideas to be considered, why not consider them?  I notice you said nothing about my comment on the GAO, there is most definitely an agenda there and so is there with the CBO but no one questions them... we are running out of time and all viable options need to be considered or we are more fucked than we already are.  

LAM, I know you are a smart guy but you tend to SLAM any idea from the right just as easily as I do some from the left, admit is already .


----------



## LAM (Jul 19, 2011)

oufinny said:


> LAM, I know you are a smart guy but you tend to SLAM any idea from the right just as easily as I do some from the left, admit is already .



they offer "fixes" but no solutions...anything that does not involve putting more money into the hands of labor is not a solution as that IS one of the primary problems.  there is always going to be wage inequality but now it is so extreme it is causing systemic economic problems that are not going to go away until this is addressed.

to date I can not find one piece of legislation from either side that put more money in the pockets of the "middle class" that didn't just transfer the problem into the government like the EITC.  government is the middle man between labor and capital and it's time that capital starts paying more to labor and not just shifting the liability onto government.  apparently everyone has forgotten about the basics and things like the economic law of diminishing returns.


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jul 22, 2011)

This is what LAM, has been saying.  Only 3 companies are noted, but accurate general points.

*A boom in corporate profits, a bust in jobs, wages*
*
'I've never seen labor markets this weak in 35 years of research'*

*
U.S. corporations such as McDonald's are expanding overseas, not so much at home.*
By PAUL WISEMAN

The Associated Press
updated 7/22/2011 


WASHINGTON — Strong second-quarter earnings from McDonald's, General Electric and Caterpillar on Friday are just the latest proof that booming profits have allowed Corporate America to leave the Great Recession far behind.

But millions of ordinary Americans are stranded in a labor market that looks like it's still in recession. Unemployment is stuck at 9.2 percent, two years into what economists call a recovery. Job growth has been slow and wages stagnant.
*
"I've never seen labor markets this weak in 35 years of research," *says Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University.

Wages and salaries accounted for just 1 percent of economic growth in the first 18 months after *economists declared that the recession had ended in June 2009,* according to Sum and other Northeastern researchers.

In the same period after the 2001 recession, wages and salaries accounted for 15 percent. They were 50 percent after the 1991-92 recession and 25 percent after the 1981-82 recession.*

Corporate profits, by contrast, accounted for an unprecedented 88 percent of economic growth during those first 18 months.* That's compared with 53 percent after the 2001 recession, nothing after the 1991-92 recession and 28 percent after the 1981-82 recession.

What's behind the disconnect between strong corporate profits and a weak labor market? Several factors:
*
    * U.S. corporations are expanding overseas, not so much at home.* McDonalds and Caterpillar said overseas sales growth outperformed the U.S. in the April-June quarter. U.S.-based multinational companies have been focused overseas for years: In the 2000s, they added 2.4 million jobs in foreign countries and cut 2.9 million jobs in the United States, according to the Commerce Department.*
    * Back in the U.S., companies are squeezing more productivity out of staffs *thinned out by layoffs during Great Recession. They don't need to hire. And they don't need to be generous with pay raises; they know their employees have nowhere else to go.
    * Companies remain reluctant to spend the $1.9 trillion in cash they've accumulated, especially in the United States. They're unconvinced that consumers are ready to spend again with the vigor they showed before the recession, and they are worried about uncertainty in U.S. government policies.

"Lack of clarity on a U.S. deficit-reduction plan, trade policy, regulation, much needed tax reform and the absence of a long-term plan to improve the country's deteriorating infrastructure do not create an environment that provides our customers with the confidence to invest," Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman said.
*
Caterpillar said second-quarter earnings shot up 44 percent to $1.02 billion— though that still disappointed Wall Street. General Electric's second-quarter earnings were up 21 percent to $3.76 billion. And McDonald's quarterly earnings increased 15 percent to $1.4 billion. *

A boom in corporate profits, a bust in jobs - Business - Stocks & economy - msnbc.com


----------



## LAM (Jul 22, 2011)

Smoothy check out the links below

Corporations make big money out of wars US is losing

Link to download a short video clip
http://rt.com/files/news/us-defense-contractors-afghan-war/hedges.flv?download=1


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jul 22, 2011)

^ Read the article, but the video failed.

Thanks, LAM. 

The more Americans that become aware of this, the better.  The MIC is a powerful machine. And, greedy.


----------



## LAM (Jul 22, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> ^ Read the article, but the video failed.
> 
> Thanks, LAM.
> 
> The more Americans that become aware of this, the better.  The MIC is a powerful machine. And, greedy.



It's the same video that is embedded on the web page, try that.

the MIC controls televised media in the US and that is where the vast majority of Americans get almost all there information on economics and politics.  the US ranks at the bottom of OECD countries in terms of the economic IQ and critical thinking, ideology trumps empirical data and logic here.

you should hear the garbage that comes out of the neo-liberal talking heads on the news and political tv shows, not a SINGLE one of them ever mentions wages, it's all about taxes.


----------



## Big Smoothy (Jul 31, 2011)

An article. listing 10 reasons.....http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43946055/ns/business-us_business/


But hey dumbshits....the US never got out of the first recession to begin with. Cunts.
*
10 signs the double-dip recession has begun *


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Aug 1, 2011)

There is no double-dip recession.  We've been in a depression since 2008 and there is no end in sight.  This is the 2nd great depression.


----------



## Arnold (Aug 1, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> There is no double-dip recession.  We've been in a depression since 2008 and there is no end in sight.  This is the 2nd great depression.



yup.


----------



## LAM (Aug 1, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> There is no double-dip recession.  We've been in a depression since 2008 and there is no end in sight.  This is the 2nd great depression.



it's also a global depression across all OECD countries not just in the US.

the US will get hit the worst because we have had the lowest wages for the longest time and started out with the highest poverty rate to begin with.  we also have the lowest percentage of GDP going towards social protection out of the OECD.


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Aug 1, 2011)

LAM said:


> it's also a global depression across all OECD countries not just in the US.
> 
> the US will get hit the worst because we have had the lowest wages for the longest time and started out with the highest poverty rate to begin with.  we also have the lowest percentage of GDP going towards social protection out of the OECD.



Dude, you're focusing on OECD countries.  If I had to live in poverty, I'd rather do it in the US or a EU country, where I could still have a vehicle, a cell phone, and my own automobile.  Come visit me in China.  I can take you 100 miles outside of Beijing and show you what real poverty looks like.


----------



## LAM (Aug 1, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> Dude, you're focusing on OECD countries.  If I had to live in poverty, I'd rather do it in the US or a EU country, where I could still have a vehicle, a cell phone, and my own automobile.  Come visit me in China.  I can take you 100 miles outside of Beijing and show you what real poverty looks like.



I've been to China and some ex-2nd world & 3rd world country's and the poverty in all of them suck.  different countries have higher and lower levels of poverty for different reasons.  some to a lack of industry combined with high population growth and others more resource and politically based.


----------



## Big Smoothy (Aug 2, 2011)

As noted by some of us on this thread, economists like to say that there was a "first" recession that "ended," and now there is "another one happening."

Ahh....defining a "recession" based on 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  Pretty convenient definition.  Just like the Unemployment rate, inflation, etc.
---
*
America???s ???Great Recession??? even greater than thought*
Max Whittaker/Reuters files

Reuters Jul 29, 2011  
By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON ??? The ???Great Recession??? was even greater than previously thought, and the U.S. economy has skated uncomfortably close to a new one this year.


New data on Friday showed the 2007-2009 U.S. recession was much more severe than prior measures had found, with economic output declining a cumulative of 5.1% instead of 4.1%.

The report also showed the current slowdown began earlier and has been deeper than previously thought, with growth in the first quarter advancing at only a 0.4% annual pace.
*
The data indicated the economy began slowing in the fourth quarter of last year before high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan???s earthquake had hit, suggesting the weakness is more fundamental and less temporary than economists had believed.*

The annual revisions of U.S. GDP data from the Commerce Department showed economic growth contracted at an annual average rate of 0.3% between 2007 and 2010. Output over that stretch had previously been estimated to have been flat.

At the depth of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, output plummeted at an annual rate of 8.9% ??? the steepest quarterly decline since 1958, and 2.1 percentage points more than previously reported.

The recession was already the deepest since the Great Depression and, while it still pales in comparison, the data help explain why it is taking so long to shake off its legacy.
*
???The general picture of the recession remains pretty much the same, it was a record decline before and now it is a even bigger decline,??? *Steven Landefeld, the director of the department???s Bureau of Economic Analysis, told reporters.


America???s ???Great Recession??? even greater than thought | Economy | Financial Post


----------



## Big Smoothy (Aug 3, 2011)

OK, the 'big' debt ceiling news story is over.  Now....back to reality.  The _Supple Managers' Purchasing Index_ is another one of those sites you can bookmark to get a quick check on how things are going...or...not going.
--

*
Manufacturing plunge a harsh dose of reality*
*Even without debt-ceiling uncertainty, economic data disappoint*
By Kevin G. Hall
McClatchy Newspapers
Tuesday, Aug. 02, 2011

WASHINGTON The pending congressional deal to raise the national debt ceiling removes a layer of uncertainty that's hovered over the struggling economy, one that saw new signs of stalling Monday.

The 11th-hour deal that President Barack Obama announced Sunday night provided the briefest of bumps to stocks early Monday morning. But after opening higher, all three major indices immediately turned south after glum news from the manufacturing front.
*
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index was down more than expected, to 50.9 from the previous month's rating of 55.3. A measurement of less than 50 usually signals an economy in contraction, so the plunge in the manufacturing number was a splash of cold water in the faces of investors.*

"Now that the debt-ceiling deal (assuming it passes) has averted an imminent catastrophe, attention can return to the underlying state of the economy. The news there isn't good," Nigel Gault, the chief U.S. economist for forecaster IHS Global Insight, wrote Monday in a note to investors.

He added that manufacturing, "like the rest of the economy, looks stalled right now. And it's hard to see how the debt-ceiling deal will improve things - it just avoids making things much worse."

The congressional deal also appears to do little to address the big cost drivers behind growing federal budget deficits, such as Medicare, Medicaid and defense. This led many economists to worry that at least one of the three major credit-rating agencies - Standard & Poor's - might still downgrade the gold-plated AAA rating that U.S. government bonds historically get.

Read more: Manufacturing plunge a harsh dose of reality | CharlotteObserver.com & The Charlotte Observer Newspaper


----------



## Big Smoothy (Aug 3, 2011)

OK, the 'big' debt ceiling news story is over.  Now....back to reality.  The _Supple Managers' Purchasing Index_ is another one of those sites you can bookmark to get a quick check on how things are going...or...not going.
--

*
Manufacturing plunge a harsh dose of reality*
*Even without debt-ceiling uncertainty, economic data disappoint*
By Kevin G. Hall
McClatchy Newspapers
Tuesday, Aug. 02, 2011

WASHINGTON The pending congressional deal to raise the national debt ceiling removes a layer of uncertainty that's hovered over the struggling economy, one that saw new signs of stalling Monday.

The 11th-hour deal that President Barack Obama announced Sunday night provided the briefest of bumps to stocks early Monday morning. But after opening higher, all three major indices immediately turned south after glum news from the manufacturing front.
*
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index was down more than expected, to 50.9 from the previous month's rating of 55.3. A measurement of less than 50 usually signals an economy in contraction, so the plunge in the manufacturing number was a splash of cold water in the faces of investors.*

"Now that the debt-ceiling deal (assuming it passes) has averted an imminent catastrophe, attention can return to the underlying state of the economy. The news there isn't good," Nigel Gault, the chief U.S. economist for forecaster IHS Global Insight, wrote Monday in a note to investors.

He added that manufacturing, "like the rest of the economy, looks stalled right now. And it's hard to see how the debt-ceiling deal will improve things - it just avoids making things much worse."

The congressional deal also appears to do little to address the big cost drivers behind growing federal budget deficits, such as Medicare, Medicaid and defense. This led many economists to worry that at least one of the three major credit-rating agencies - Standard & Poor's - might still downgrade the gold-plated AAA rating that U.S. government bonds historically get.

Read more: Manufacturing plunge a harsh dose of reality | CharlotteObserver.com & The Charlotte Observer Newspaper


----------



## Big Smoothy (Aug 3, 2011)

I thought that I'd throw this in also.  I posted David Walkers _60 Minutes_ interview 3 1/2 years ago (anyone can do a search).  

Here's more news from Walker.  
--*
US Less Than 3 Years Away From Being Greece: Walker*
Tuesday, 2 Aug 2011 

By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer

The US is only a few years away from reaching the same debt levels that pushed Greece to the brink of ruin, former comptroller general and head of the Comeback America Initiative David Walker said.

As the ratio of its debt to gross national product eclipsed 100 percent and surged toward 150 percent, Greece has twice in the last two years nearly defaulted on its debt. Only successive bailout packages from the European Union and International Monetary Fund prevented catastrophe.

When tolling up all the US debts [cnbc explains] , *including huge unfunded liabilities to Social Security and Medicare, the US is on dangerous ground*, Walker said in a CNBC interview.

"We are less than three years away from where Greece had its debt crisis as to where they were from debt to GDP," he said.

Entire: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43984077


----------



## mryar (Aug 3, 2011)

Washington spent money of people that aren't even born yet. We are completely fucked.

US debt problem visualized: Debt stacked in 100 dollar bills


----------



## mryar (Aug 3, 2011)

Biggest problem with this country is tax money isn't going to Defense or roads, its going right into someone else's pocket that didn't work for the money. 

Politicians take money from us, then give it to someone else (stealing money to buy votes) 

SSDI, section8, medicare, medicaid, pensions, even public k-12 education... Someone want to tell me why I should have to go to work and put in hours so the money can go right into the pocket of someone else sitting at home doing nothing?


----------



## GearsMcGilf (Aug 3, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> I thought that I'd throw this in also.  I posted David Walkers _60 Minutes_ interview 3 1/2 years ago (anyone can do a search).
> 
> Here's more news from Walker.
> --*
> ...



Yep, and who's gonna bail out the USA?


----------



## LAM (Aug 3, 2011)

Big Smoothy said:


> including huge unfunded liabilities to Social Security and Medicare, the US is on dangerous ground



this is all due to the declining GDP and loss of tax revenue.  

25% of medicare costs are directly linked to administrative costs.  the billing and accounting systems used in healthcare are just plan inefficient and wasteful.  the US also has the least amount of Dr's (as a %) in the OECD yet we have one of the largest populations.  US Dr's on average get paid 3X their foreign counterparts because of this.  if they let in more foreign born Dr's to work in the private sector (and not just the VA hospitals) that would reduce the cost of healthcare by an additional 25%.

healthcare is very expensive in the US because it is designed to be that way, but it doesn't have to...


----------



## LAM (Aug 3, 2011)

mryar said:


> Biggest problem with this country is tax money isn't going to Defense or roads, its going right into someone else's pocket that didn't work for the money.
> 
> Politicians take money from us, then give it to someone else (stealing money to buy votes)
> 
> SSDI, section8, medicare, medicaid, pensions, even public k-12 education... Someone want to tell me why I should have to go to work and put in hours so the money can go right into the pocket of someone else sitting at home doing nothing?



you have been brainwashed by the anti-government idiots on tv.  only a small percentage of the US population is constantly on gov assistance something like 4%.  the rest fall in and out of poverty depending on the economy.   all these stats are in the yearly poverty report that the census puts out.

to say that because a few people abuse a system and it should be discontinued is ridiculous.  you could apply that "logic" to just about everything:  guns, drunk drivers and cars, bad banks and wallstreet traders, etc.


----------



## oufinny (Aug 4, 2011)

LAM said:


> you have been brainwashed by the anti-government idiots on tv.  only a small percentage of the US population is constantly on gov assistance something like 4%.  the rest fall in and out of poverty depending on the economy.   all these stats are in the yearly poverty report that the census puts out.
> 
> to say that because a few people abuse a system and it should be discontinued is ridiculous.  you could apply that "logic" to just about everything:  guns, drunk drivers and cars, bad banks and wallstreet traders, etc.



Regardless of the amount, when it comes to things like social security, if you never worked you have not earned the right to receive this. It is not an entitlement program, it is a privilege that is earned because you paid for it. The thought somebody never works yet collects full benefits disgusts me and A LOT of Americans.


----------



## Dale Mabry (Aug 4, 2011)

oufinny said:


> Regardless of the amount, when it comes to things like social security, if you never worked you have not earned the right to receive this. It is not an entitlement program, it is a privilege that is earned because you paid for it. The thought somebody never works yet collects full benefits disgusts me and A LOT of Americans.



So the best thing to do is gut the program so the 99.99999% of people using it properly suffer?


----------



## myCATpowerlifts (Aug 4, 2011)

oufinny said:


> Regardless of the amount, when it comes to things like social security, if you never worked you have not earned the right to receive this. It is not an entitlement program, it is a privilege that is earned because you paid for it. The thought somebody never works yet collects full benefits disgusts me and A LOT of Americans.



Yea no shit, but just like LAM/dale said, it's not the majority.

There's always gonna be people taking advantage of any system. It's called survival instincts.

Are you gonna whine about abusers of other systems?


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## LAM (Aug 4, 2011)

oufinny said:


> Regardless of the amount, when it comes to things like social security, if you never worked you have not earned the right to receive this. It is not an entitlement program, it is a privilege that is earned because you paid for it. The thought somebody never works yet collects full benefits disgusts me and A LOT of Americans.



nobody collects SS unless you have earned enough credits over the course of the lifetime, that's the way the program has always been.

http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/10072.html


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## Dale Mabry (Aug 4, 2011)

LAM said:


> nobody collects SS unless you have earned enough credits over the course of the lifetime, that's the way the program has always been.
> 
> How You Earn Credits



Yeah, but there are 35 year old, unemployed black people with iPhones and Escalades lighting their cigars with the social security checks they get every month.


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## LAM (Aug 4, 2011)

Dale Mabry said:


> Yeah, but there are 35 year old, unemployed black people with iPhones and Escalades lighting their cigars with the social security checks they get every month.



is not SS but welfare, they are totally different systems.  welfare can be scammed while SS can not it is based on tax returns from the IRS.

I don't understand why people are "jealous" of someone because they drive one of the worst SUV's ever made and live in the ghetto...so what if they might have a nice vehicle, they are never financially independent, nor do they ever take vacations or get to retire....I laugh at them because they think they are getting over, but in the long run not even close...


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## Gissurjon (Aug 5, 2011)

GearsMcGilf said:


> There is no double-dip recession.  We've been in a depression since 2008 and there is no end in sight.  *This is the 2nd great depression*.



No it's not. Not at all. Do you see a mile long food line anywhere. Lets not get carried away in the government advocated fear mongering. Sure families are suffering, but during the great depression people were actually dying from hunger. I don't expect the American school system to teach their student's accurate history though.


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## Gissurjon (Aug 5, 2011)

LAM said:


> is not SS but welfare, they are totally different systems.  welfare can be scammed while SS can not it is based on tax returns from the IRS.
> 
> I don't understand why people are "jealous" of someone because they drive one of the worst *SUV's ever made and live in the ghetto...so what if they might have a nice vehicle, they are never financially independent, nor do they ever take vacations or get to retire.*...I laugh at them because they think they are getting over, but in the long run not even close...



this is the thing man, the average American values worthless shit more than relationships and memories. That's why greed and jealousy thrive here. So when they look at poor folks driving what they consider nice vehicles, they make more of a deal out of it than should be. Like you said, it's a shitty car and the person driving it will never have peace of mind when it comes to financial security, heck they'll probably never drive that vehicle across state limits.


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